Ray Dalio: Five Major Forces Driving a Shift in the Global System

• Financial and economic power, internal balance between order and chaos, great power conflicts, natural disasters, and technological advancement will shape the near future.
• Increasing tax revenue doesn’t only mean raising taxes.
• Controlling interest rates is a key factor in market stability.
• Three fundamental factors must be considered to avoid economic crises.

At the Global Government Summit 2025, which concluded today after a three-day event in Dubai, American media personality Tucker Carlson, owner and founder of the Tucker Carlson Network, engaged in a discussion with Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, about major trends shaping the future.

The session focused on global financial challenges and economic cycles impacting global stability.

Ray Dalio emphasized that major economic and political events follow recurring historical cycles.

He identified five key forces shaping the global system:

• Financial and economic power – Many countries are currently facing an unprecedented debt crisis.
• Internal balance between order and chaos – Societies are witnessing sharp divisions that may lead to internal unrest.
• Great power conflicts – Tensions between major nations, such as the rivalry between the U.S. and China, are escalating.
• Natural disasters – Climate change, pandemics, and other crises continue to impact political and economic stability.
• Technological advancement – Rapid innovation is continuously reshaping economies and societies.

Dalio stressed that these forces interact within historical cycles, and the world is currently experiencing a major turning point. He noted, “This cycle spans approximately 80 years, and we are now in its transitional phase.”

The Global Debt Crisis

Dalio highlighted the unprecedented scale of the global debt crisis, describing debt as a circulatory system of the economy that, when excessively high, hinders growth. He pointed out that the United States currently pays $1 trillion annually in interest on its debt and must refinance over $9 trillion in the next year alone.

With persistently high fiscal deficits, Dalio warned that the U.S. and other nations face severe economic challenges if urgent measures are not taken.

Possible Solutions

When asked about potential solutions, Dalio outlined three critical factors to prevent economic crises:

• Increasing tax revenue – Not just through raising taxes but by stimulating national income growth.
• Reducing government spending – While ensuring a balance that prevents social unrest.
• Controlling interest rates – A crucial measure for maintaining market stability.

He emphasized that reducing the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP is necessary to avoid a major financial crisis, citing historical examples where successful measures were implemented to achieve this goal.

Social and Political Implications

The discussion also covered the social consequences of economic policies.

Dalio noted that significant budget cuts reshape the social contract between governments and citizens, potentially leading to political instability, as seen in various countries.

He stressed the need for a delicate balance between economic reforms and social stability.

A Critical Window for Action

Concluding the session, Dalio underscored that the decisions made in the next three years will be crucial in determining the future of the global economy.

He urged policymakers to act swiftly and effectively to prevent a potential global financial crisis.