The Philosophy of Uncertainty: An Interview with Dr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Life and the Global Economy

In our daily lives, we often face unexpected moments that make us wonder: How can we deal with the unknown? Dr. Nassim Taleb, one of the world’s leading thinkers, believes that uncertainty is not an enemy but an integral part of life. By understanding it, we can better navigate challenges.

In an interview with Talal Al-Hammad, Editor-in-Chief of entArabi, during the Megacampus Conference, Dr. Taleb shared profound insights into the philosophy of uncertainty and how unforeseen events can transform our lives.

Talal Al-Hammad: Welcome, Dr. Taleb. It’s an honor to have you with us. We’ve noticed your insistence on speaking Arabic. Why is that?
Dr. Nassim Taleb: Yes, I always insist on speaking my native language. We are in the Middle East, and it’s important to express our ideas in our mother tongue.

Talal Al-Hammad: To start, what’s your perspective on the idea of uncertainty as part of life’s philosophy?
Dr. Nassim Taleb: Uncertainty is the essence of life. Humans don’t know when they will leave this world. For instance, in filmmaking, viewers always anticipate the ending because it answers all their questions. Dealing with uncertainty has been a fundamental part of our history in the Middle East. We’ve been contemplating this topic for thousands of years.

Talal Al-Hammad: How do you view the role of uncertainty in Eastern civilizations?
Dr. Nassim Taleb: In ancient civilizations like Babylon, Phoenicia, and even in Arabia, dealing with uncertainty was of paramount importance. Hammurabi’s laws, for example, aimed to create balance in trade. If a commercial ship sank, both the ship owner and the owner of the goods shared the losses. This concept persisted for thousands of years. In many ways, we in the East have a more advanced understanding of these issues compared to the West.

Talal Al-Hammad: Your book The Black Swan discusses unexpected crises. How do you view the impact of such crises?
Dr. Nassim Taleb: Unexpected crises have a much greater impact than anticipated ones. In the book, I highlight the importance of having systems that can withstand the unexpected. This applies to investors, policymakers, and various administrations. We can’t predict what will happen, but we can build systems that are less fragile and more resilient to crises.

Talal Al-Hammad: What are your thoughts on the current relationship between the United States and China?
Dr. Nassim Taleb: The relationship between the U.S. and China is extremely complex. The media often exaggerates matters, but in reality, the U.S. heavily depends on China’s economy. If China stops exporting goods to the U.S., it will significantly affect America, leading to severe inflation, as we saw in 2022. The relationship is akin to that of a colonizer and the colonized but in economic terms.

Talal Al-Hammad: Does this mean China is economically stronger than the U.S.?
Dr. Nassim Taleb: Absolutely. China’s growth isn’t happening in isolation; it’s pulling along other countries in the region, like the Philippines, Vietnam, and India. On the other hand, the U.S. is struggling to maintain its economic influence.

Talal Al-Hammad: What’s your view on the current global inflation?
Dr. Nassim Taleb: Current global inflation doesn’t directly impact the economy but poses a challenge for investors and financial policies. Global economic growth no longer relies on the U.S. as it once did. America’s share of the global economy has shrunk to less than 15%, while BRICS nations—like China, India, and Brazil—now constitute over 40% of the global economy.

Talal Al-Hammad: How do you see these shifts affecting the global order?
Dr. Nassim Taleb: The world is moving eastward. China’s approach is entirely different from that of the West. The West followed a “divide and conquer” strategy, while China pursued a “unite and prosper” approach. They work on building strong relationships with their neighbors to enhance trade and stability. This Confucian philosophy fosters economic harmony in the region.

Talal Al-Hammad: Do you see hope for achieving a global economic balance?
Dr. Nassim Taleb: Absolutely. We could see a more stable world if countries work towards economic coordination and harmony. However, this requires political and economic will to avoid conflicts and create a balanced environment for all.

This enlightening conversation with Dr. Nassim Taleb offers profound insights into many contemporary issues. It serves as a reminder of the importance of strategic thinking and future-oriented vision in understanding our world—and how collaboration and harmony can pave the way to a more balanced global economy.